What Would Abe or FDR Do?

Here's Gov. Paterson's dilemma according to a new poll out today: his popularity is near record lows. About the only thing he could do to make things worse would be to cut education and health-care spending, which of course is exactly what he is proposing to balance the state budget. Revenues now look like they're gong to fall at least $3 billion short of expenses this year.

Oh yes, pollsters also told questioners from Siena Research Institute one other thing they demand from Paterson: don't raise taxes either.

The problem he has is if even he were a combination of Abraham Lincoln and Franklin Roosevelt, which he isn't, Paterson would have trouble winning the election next year because of economic and financial conditions.

Voters, which means us, generally don't reward elected officials for fiscal prudence. They want more money for schools and health care and don't want to have to pay any more for it or any other state services. They blame the Legislature too, but that's more of an abstraction to most people, since incumbents keep winning most of the time.

We typically hold incumbent governors to account for the state of the economy and the budget, which is why incumbents so often lose during or at the end of a recession (see Carey vs. Wilson, 1974, or Pataki vs. Cuomo, 1994). Democratic New Jersey Gov. Jon Corzine is in trouble in this year's election and Republicans might also win the governorship of Virginia (where govs are limited to one term and a Dem is now in charge) largely because of tax and economic issues.

We prefer someone fresh, who can say with a straight face that they could have done something other than raise taxes or cut spending in tough times to balance the budget.

That, of course, is the huge advantage Andrew Cuomo has over Paterson: he can say without guffawing that the state needs to get its fiscal house in order without getting specific (beyond consolidating governments, which he is overselling as a cure to our fiscal woes.)

Cuomo's job since 2007 as attorney general has been to chase down crooks and other bad guys with nary a worry about the recession and the effect the Wall Street collapse has had on state tax revenues.

It's a lot easier to be against corruption and fraud than it is to be for cutting spending on schools and hospitals.

Former NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani, whose poll numbers are improving, also benefits from not holding office during the recent economic unpleasantness.

To rub it in a little for Paterson, today's Albany Times Union had a good story by Rick Karlin pointing out that much of the extra revenue and savings the governor is proposing to close the budget gap looks like wishful thinking or short-term actions that will cost the state more money in the long run.

All of these factors make it more likely that it's not a matter of IF Paterson will announce he's not running next year, but WHEN he'll make the announcement and what fat federal sinecure he will be offered to lure him out of the race. The middle of next year is a good bet.

Maybe he'll use his time to actually push for needed but politically unpopular changes like lower pension benefits for new government employees and more power for school boards to control spending since no matter what he does, he's toast politically.

Meanwhile, for all of those of you hanging on hearing a great radio interview, I'll be on WAMC at 1 p.m. on Thursday, Nov.12. Maybe they're hoping the interview, which I taped with Alan Chartock a week ago, will get better with age. It will be on-line for non-Albanians.