He may be a carpetbagger, but at least he's not from upstate

What is it about New York and carpetbaggers?

For whatever reason, New Yorkers seem more likely to elect new arrivals to the U.S. Senate than most other states. The examples of Bobby Kennedy of Massachusetts (1964), Jim Buckley of Connecticut (1970) and Hillary Clinton of wherever (2000) spring immediately to mind.

The latest potential person to fit this category is, of course, Harold Ford Jr. of Tennessee, who moved here after losing a Senate race in his home state in 2006 after serving five terms in the House - which he admitted was his first full-time job after graduating from law school. He's mulling (I almost never hear anybody actually say that word, but it's in my newspaperese DNA) a Democratic primary run against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand.

As 'fessed up to in yesterday's blog, I bailed out on last night's Black and Hispanic Legislators' Conference before before he delivered his keynote address (hope my pay doesn't get docked) but through the miracle of blogs, I was able to watch him today.

In front of a crowd that had little reason to be friendly to him, he was funny in a self-deprecating way, modest and even a little inspiring. Nothing of substance, of course, but after all it was a political speech. The crowd gave him kind of a tepid welcome but a warm round of applause when he was done.

Will performances like that be enough to buck most of the Democratic establishment, which is lining up behind Gillibrand? Will the current anti-incumbent fervor extend to Democratic primaries? Will his Wall Street ties and apparent reluctance to release his tax records hurt him with middle-class voters?

It's too early to tell. But maybe the best thing he has going for him is that Gillibrand herself is from upstate, which many New York City voters (who make up two-thirds of those who cast ballots in Democratic primaries in the state) consider more alien territory than much of the rest of the country.